Democratic Capitalist

65.9% would appear to be the final figure the ANC ended up. Even with a few objections that means that it is near certain the ANC has not gotten its two/thirds majority.

Its is brilliant to know that it came down to such a narrow percentage and every vote counted in preventing them getting their critical figure.

I guess it is also a lesson to everybody to not be apathetic - you can make a difference.

The lack of a two thirds majority should send a pretty positive message to the international investment community - a solid democracy and despite a large majority party - not enough power to make constitutional changes.

Well done South Africa.

Our minister of humour and entertainment affairs Julius Malema, must be a little disappointed… According to the various news sources, the ANC is battling to get that elusive last 1% to carry it to its 2/3rds majority let alone the “Three-Thirds” that he predicted.

COPE and the DA have done well if they keep the ANC under their 2/3rds… I genuinely think that they have done well as opposed to the ANC doing badly.

I don’t think the Zuma figurehead has helped the ANC cause, but to his credit he has come through a pretty bruising scrap and if he doesn’t get the majority then the SA voter has spoken and democracy has worked.

I read an interesting comment from political commentator Adam Habib recently - he said that the success of the Obama campaign in the US had increased interest in local voting and had led to such a high voter turnout - there was no apathy this time around.

Good to see South Africa

It is early days yet in the counting process but some interesting numbers have emerged as the first 1.3m votes (out of 23 million) have been counted.

The ANC has as predicted taken an early lead, hovering around the 60 - 66% mark…

 The DA however seems to have surprised and has managed to capture about 21% - maybe their forays into social media have started to pay off.

Finally COPE is sitting on a pretty flat 7% - for a new party not too shabby but they need to get that figure closer to 15% to have been a serious contender this year. If they finish with less than 10% then I think the electorate has spoken and they will probably lose their novelty factor…

Will try and post updates as the results are released.

Hhhhmmmm so election day is finally here and the question of who you are going to vote for invariably has passed through your mind.

As a white male (and yes it identity is important) its a pretty tricky one - I can either follow David Bullards advice and put my cross next to the ANC… nah…

Alternatively I can stick my vote with the terrier Helen Zille …. doesn’t really appeal to me I have to be honest. They can twitter all they like and try and emulate Obama’s campaign in the US but they’re lightweights at the moment.

So that leaves me with COPE. Now COPE is interesting because while they are primarily a “black” party, they have struck a chord with white South Africans because unlike the DA, they know a few things that does make the ANC sit up and take notice:

1) They know where all the skeletons are buried

2) They have the media and financial resources to sway public opinion…. the Zuma battle is testament to this

3) In addition to that, they’re playing on capitalist values - something which somebody across the board understands.

4) They have an appeal to the “old school” ANC values as well as the “new school” South African.

Will they be any better when they’re actually in power? Who knows - all I do know is that they will cause kak when they’re there

For me… COPE it is

It has been quite interesting to watch the way that certain towns have managed to fight back against underperforming muncipalities by witholding their rates and taxes.

Basically a couple of communities got so sick and tired of poor service delivery, they witheld their taxes (in a trust account) and eventually the finance minister Trevor Manuel was forced to intervene.

But interestingly, I’ve heard legal opinion that what they are doing is actually acceptable in terms of the constitution. It’s not quite that easy to simply not pay your rates because invariably the council simply sends somebody around to disconnect your water and electricity until you comply….

… but then again, there is nothing to say that Bryanston for instance couldn’t take a leaf out of the Khutsong book and simply block off their roads with burning tires. Remember that Khutsong largely doesn’t pay any form of tax and THEY can protest against poor service delivery so surely those of us who pay a couple of grand a month in tax can argue it?!

Anyway the point that I wanted to raise, is that it is quite interesting to see communities actually starting to take a stand against poor service delivery and going head to head with the municipalities and state owned enterprises - and being able to use the constitution to protect their rights….

Going to watch this one quite closely because it might mean a big shape-up in the management of municipalities.

And so the much awaited 2009 elections finally arrive… there has been so much expectation on these elections and so many unknowns that it’s intriguing to almost sit back and watch the way people are responding to these elections.

We’ve had previously elections, where everyone has gotten all worked up about how the country is going to fall to pieces and to be honest I just don’t see it happening.

I won’t be voting for the ANC but for everyone who is predicting doom and gloom, please try and tell me WHY the country would suddenly go nuts and fall to pieces or chuck out the rule of law?

The change of leadership is already known so there will be no shocks: It’s an unfortunate choice, but

not somebody who is exactly going to lead us down the path of destruction. Zuma knows why he is in power and which business people within the ANC put him there. These guys have too much to lose from pushing an agenda of violence or the big red self-destruct button.

Economy is holding up relatively well: We’ve obviously got out problems but at the end of the day, the local economy is holding up quite well and the sporting events should keep business flowing - we’re not out of the worst of it either but maybe the ANC’s “inability” to keep the economy going might equal a wider spread of the votes which I reckon is good for democracy.

The legal system has held up: Say what you like about the spy saga, Mbeki, Zuma etc. etc. Anybody watching the news was made very aware of just how much of an anti-Zuma campaign was on the go. The guy took an absolute pounding in the media courtesy of some clever PR work from the “old ANC” / COPE lineups and he’s come through. Despite all the pressure that was on the judiciary we came through with fair judgements.

I guess the real question will be what the new government will prioritise going forward.

My feeling is that they are going to put more emphasis on two main factors - unemployment (through state assets such as Transnet, Eskom etc.) and crime / security.

You must remember that we have been through a big infrastructural boom where large chunks of the budget have been committed to getting these projects going. There should still be quite a lot of spending here for the likes of power stations etc, but not the same “blanket” investment that has been applied to the Gautrain, road system and all the other fine things that had to be online in time for the 2010 world cup.

As those projects come offline, more can be committed to things like security. Remember that also in the 2009 budget R5.4bn had been introduced to try and improve the justice system. This includes two major overhauls of the DNA and finger-print databases which should:

A) Lead to higher levels of prosecution
B) Help tie criminals in to other crimes they commit and keep them off the streets for longer.

We also know that the numbers of police are likely to increase by about 10% per annum between now and 2011 which should go a long way toward tackling crime. Remember that police / safety and security is a portfolio where you can create jobs nice and easily.

Anyway let’s see what happens and keep positive.

At 4AM this morning I charged into my daughters bedroom to find two black faces at the window attached to two pairs of hands trying to negotiate a laptop out the window using a couple of sticks.

I irritatingly appear to have disturbed them earlier this morning when the dogs got all worked up, but I didn’t realise the significance of two “hook” looking sticks in the garden when I first went to investigate.

Until I found them at the window the second time…. Grrrrr.

Fortunately I got a good look at the one guy and I’ve seen him before - a beggar in the area - not sure about the other guy though.

But it makes you think - from time to time you help the guy at the robot with a couple of bucks extra and then you get this crap.

I’m pondering what I’m going to do next time I see him at the robot…

hhhmmm….

Pondering whether to report it to the cops?? Suppose I should at least give them the info at the police station - maybe it gives them a lead they can tie to other cases if there are any.

Hhhhmmmm reading the news sites this morning it would appear that the trucker strike is starting to have an impact - inland fuel stations are running dry.

Reading some of the comments posted with many of the stories people have bemoaned the “criminal” behaviour of many of the labour unions by going on these strikes and inconveniencing business and consumers.

This isn’t a uniquely South African problem - remember in Europe labour also is pretty well organised and powerful …. the question though is whether or not we want to go down the path Europe has gone down where labour has become too dominant and manufacturing has become expensive.

Have to ponder this one a bit….

According to the Associated Press, there have been 53  mass shootings deaths in the US in the last month alone.

There have been three shootings in the last two days with the worsensing economic climate being blamed. People are essentially losing their jobs and have mounting debts and as a result they effectively “crack”.

I know gun-control is a hot topic and we’ve all heard all of the different arguments for and against it but imagine you were one of these 53 people who woke up one morning not knowing it was going to be your last?

South Africa still has very high incidents of gun related crime and I wonder whether the country would benefit from outlawing guns. The obvious question though is whether or not you’re simply taking guns away from people who require self-defence, while those committing the crimes end up with guns through illegal methods.

Don’t know. Any thoughts?

I’ve just been reading an article by Peter Hitchens in the Daily Mail about how South Africa is going to be run by a crazy man who sings about machine guns and dances around in traditional African dress and is going to lead us down the path of despair.

I’ve decided not even to justify posting the link to the article because it’s so bloody one-sided.

Blah blah blah… yes Zuma is a bit of a headcase and hardly the perfect politician to be parading around as the head of the country but geez talk about a bit of crack-pot commentary!

And coming from somebody in the UK?! We can hardly take advice from that country which is in a far worse state than we are…

Just some comparisons:

Banking system -  Remind us again how many South African banks have failed as part of the fallout from the global financial crisis? Oh that’s right - non… In the UK how many banks have been bailed out or nationalised - HBOS, Bradford & Bingley, Lloyds TSB, RBS, Northern Rock etc.

Xenophobic violence - This has been on the rise across the UK and Europe including France and Greece. Failing economies, failing banks etc etc are driving this - we had some issues of course but what is France going to say when people start fleeing the UK to move into the relative safety of mainland Europe… what about that little issue of Northern Ireland which has flared up again?

Zuma and his corruption cases - Yeah yeah we’ve heard this all before. You might want to do the sums and see how much Gordon Brown’s failure to manage consumer debt and the banking system has cost YOUR country before pointing fingers at us… trust me it makes for interesting reading and you’ll find that the couple of million that Zuma is accused of pales in comparison. We fortunately had the financial skills and know-how to implement things like the National Credit Act and capital adequecy ratios at banks which the UK failed to manage…

Remind us again how many people are on the dole / welfare programs in the UK?

Remind us again why we have won a whole host of international sporting events that are basically giving us millions in public infrastructure and foreign direct investment projects that are going to help carry us through this crisis….

All in all - maybe look at your own problems before traipsing around the globe talking about our little backward country.